What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple indicator focuses on the supply dimension of Bitcoin. Rather it focuses on Bitcoin miners and their revenue. Miners need to sell their BTC in order to keep their businesses running. This is due to electricity, mining hardware, A-C repair costs etc.
However, there are times when miners look to sell and times to HODL their BTC. The PM indicator is based around the revenue generation from BTC miners. For example, in the green zones revenue generation for BTC miners is low. However in the red zones revenue generation is high.
How is the PM calculated?
The Puell Multiple (PM) works by dividing the daily issued Bitcoins (in terms of USD) by the 365 day daily coin issuance MA (again in terms of USD).
PM = Daily coin issuance (USD) / 365 MA daily coin issuance (USD)
From these calculations we then get the PM displayed as a line, as shown below.
The PM – BTC
What cryptocurrencies does the PM work on?
The PM works only on BTC and LTC. It does not work on cryptocurrencies which use PoS, BFT, PoI etc. Therefore ETH, XRP and numerous cryptocurrencies cannot use the PM. This can be seen when you attempt to use the PM on SingluarityNET (AGIX).
PM only works on LTC and BTC
To learn more about the changing distributions in usage of consensus algorithms among the top 10 cryptocurrencies over time and whether alt coins are just a distraction, why not read our article on this?
Which cryptocurrency is the PM most effective with? LTC or BTC?
The PM was designed for BTC. The PM is compatible with LTC, however due to being designed for BTC it is less effective with LTC.
PM – LTC/USD
How to read the PM
On the left hand side y-axis there are numerical values ranging between 0.2 – 10. From here the PM then has two boxes, the green and the red box. When BTC pushes up to the red box (4<x10) the PM recommends that Bitcoin holders take profits. However when BTC hits the green zone (x<0.5) the PM springs buy signals.
Let’s take a look at the historical success of the PM.
PM BTC/USD – boxes
Historical success of the PM
In the table below we can see the historical price action once BTC enters the red zone of the PM.
|Cryptocurrency||Date BTC enters red zone||Price||Proceeding drop|
|BTC||20/03/13||$64 USD||BTC drops from $229USD to $65USD in 4 months|
|BTC||21/11/13||$719 USD||BTC drops from $1,100 USD to $172 USD in 3 months|
|BTC||27/11/17||$9,750 USD||BTC drops from $20,000 USD to $3,000 USD in 12 months|
Historically, once BTC has entered the red zone (red zone starts at numerical value of 4) the price sees an extension before a major sell off.
In the table below we can see the profitability of purchasing BTC when it enters the green zone of the PL.
|Cryptocurrency||Date BTC enters green zone||Price||Price when red zone next seen||PnL|
|BTC||11/10/11||$3.96 USD||$64 USD||+1,616%|
|BTC||07/10/15||$334 USD||$9,750 USD||+2,919%|
|BTC||19/11/18||$4,875 USD||N/A (at time of writing)||+802% (BTC at $39,100 USD at time of writing – PM 1.2)|
When BTC enters the green zone it typically sees further downside movement before taking off. For example, when BTC entered the green zone at $3.96 USD, BTC proceeded to see further downside movement towards $2.05 USD. However from a macro perspective, the PM green zone does typically mark around the bottom.
In conclusion, the PM is great at identifying points to sell and buy from a long term perspective (the indicator is not designed to function on the short term). If you are looking to HODL BTC, the PM indicator should be in your arsenal for potential macro entry and exit points.